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First FutureMARES Policy Brief "Climate Exposure of European Marine Areas: Hotspots and Refugia"

The first of a series of FutureMARES Policy Briefs was published, focusing on climate modelling that highlights future hotspots and refugia in European waters.


Effective actions to adapt to the ongoing changes in our climate require detailed information on the physical and biogeochemical changes expected in our oceans. However, current projections do not adequately resolve details of various changes in regional and coastal zones of marine habitats in European waters and beyond. This policy brief is based on the results of statistical downscaling of climate models for application to European regional seas and coastal zones (Kristiansen et al 2024). The results enable us to better understand expected impacts of climate change and to identify climate hotspots (spots of high warming/acidification/deoxygenation) and refugia (spots of low warming/acidification/ deoxygenation) for sensitive species, across a range of scenarios and climate models. The projections are important for successful planning of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) to help safeguard marine biodiversity and ecosystem services in a future climate.


The Policy Brief follows a structure that will be common to all following FutureMARES Policy Briefs, as well:


  • Highlights,

  • Key Statements,

  • Context & Background,

  • Key Results, and

  • Policy Recommendations.


The content is accompanies by impactful figures highlighting the modelling results and making the Policy Brief easy to understand and apply to decision-making.


Figures showing warming exposure in European seas
Excerpt from the Policy Brief

Download the Policy Brief document in our Resources section.


In case of questions, feel free to contact our coordinator Myron A. Peck (NIOZ).

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